For all intents and purposes, the Philippines is actually still within its annual rainy season. And while the archipelago nation is an unavoidable destination of many typhoons from the Pacific all year round, they are supposed to come more frequently during the rainy months from June to September. And September has just started. This week alone, the Philippines must consider two, actually three weather disturbances within and near the Area of Responsibility (PAR). One low-pressure area is already in the West Philippine Sea, but two to the east are poised to possibly cause trouble. The first, already named, is expected to make landfall by Thursday.
The Manila Bulletin reports that the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is calculating a possible landfall for Tropical Depression Jolina this coming September 9. Their report this Monday, September 6 as of 11AM places TD Jolina some 205 kilometers due east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar and 230 km east-northeast of Surigao City in Surigao Del Norte. And before its landfall, the tropical depression has been forecast to intensify into a tropical storm (TS) by Wednesday, September 8. Jolina has current maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, and a gustiness of 70 km/h at most.
In response to the ever closing proximity of TD Jolina, PAGASA is raising tropical cyclone wind Signal Number 1 in five provinces – Dinagat Islands, Eastern Samar, Samar, Northern Samar and Sorsogon – as well as two outlying islands of Surigao Del Norte, namely Siargao and Bucas Grande. According to PAGASA senior weather specialist Chris Perez, Signal Number 1 will entail strong winds with some occasional gusts that will only grow stronger as soon as Jolina becomes a tropical storm. Jolina is also expected to leave the PAR by Friday, September 10.
As for the second tropical depression following Jolina’s general path towards the Philippines, it is roughly 1,480 kilometers east of the VIsayas as of 4AM this same Monday. PAGASA is expected to deliver a more up-to-date report on this TD within the next 24 to 36 hours. The national weather agency has revealed that the moment it crosses into the PAR, this weather system will be assigned the name Kiko. Landfall for Kiko is currently deemed unlikely, given its north-northwesterly path towards southern Japan. It is estimated to become a tropical storm itself by Friday.
Image courtesy of ABS-CBN News